6 May
Graham sentiment index at 90 and going lower from the high of 93 a few day ago.

2 May

Sentiment is good in the stock market.  No signs of weakness at this moment.

29 April
Market sentiment according to the GMI is 86.  Sentiment is on the rise ,but not yet overheated.  
I bought 1200 SSL shares for the sentiment strategy 2.


24 April
VTRS is now in the swing trading portfolio.  Graham senitment index , a gauge for overall US stock market sentiment, is at  77.  3 days ago this index was around 40.  Find out more about this unique sentiment index.

23 April
Sold ALK already.  Check here.

22 April
Bought 60 shares of ALK. Strat 2

7 April 
GMI , graham sentiment index, under 10.   Low levels of optimism have had the highest correlation with market reversals.  Let 's see.
Time to buy shares of Yala for strat 1.  Or pick another stock that you think is worth a lot more.

This Graham Sentiment Index  is a Fear and Greed Index, also called the Market Mood Index, aims to quantify investor emotion. It assigns a numerical score representing the sentiment driving markets at any moment. The index ranges from 1 to 99. Low values signify extreme fear, while high values indicate greed.

26 February
Market Mood Model changed opninion : Mr Market is in a good mood.
This sentiment model expects higherer stock prices for the next few days.

20 February
Market Mood Model changed : Mr Market is in a not so good mood.
This sentiment model expects lower stock prices for the next few days.

11 February
I bought CAL and ENIC for the trading portfolio.

GMI is around 50.  Neutral sentiment.

4 February
Market Mood Model changed : Mr Market is in a good mood again.
This sentiment model expects higher stock prices for the next few days.

31 January
Yesterday I wrote that stocks could go higher.  1 day later the message is the oppostie.  The Market Mood Model changed it's view for the markets.  The expectation is now that markets could go lower to flat. 

The Graham Mood Index dropped 7 points from 77 to 70.

30 January
Market Mood Model bias : stocks could go higher.
Sentiment Index GMI stays around 77.
PAGS stock still in portfolio.

27 January
Volatility is back.  VIX around 19.  Graham index dropped to 18 from 78 last week.
According to the Market Mood Model stocks will go lower in the next few days.

24 January
GMI at 78.  Mr. Market stays in a very good mood.  For how long ?
WF and HRZN still in the trading from the gut portfolio.


14 January
Yesterday the SSRM shares were sold.  In hindsight , I should I have sold earlier.

8 January
GMI at 18.  VIX 17.70.  US stock market expactation for the next few days is : LOWER


3 January

Happy and Healthy New Year GMI at 14.  I bought GDOT shares for the Trading from the gut portfolio.  This portfolio started in November and had a return of 7 % after 16 trades in about 30 business days.  Better than expected.   We will see if that return is sustainable.  I will do my best of course.  As long as the result is positive...

23 December
GMI still below 10.

18 December
Mr. Market is in a very bad mood now .... Mr. Market is an abstract idea that can help investors understand the stock market better. The concept teaches investors that they must continue to think independently and rationally, even when emotions take over. As Graham said , understanding Mr. Market is crucial for any investor who wants to be successful in the stock market, and can lead to better investment decisions and results.

The Graham Mood Index or GMI is an index that attempts to measure Mr. Market's current mood.
Today the GMI is at 6.  Last time the GMI was that low was August 2024.  In the next few days I will select a new stock for Strategy 2.
A new stock pick will be shared shortly

17 December
GMI is at 18 now.  VIX around 15.30 with an tendency to go higher.. So more volatile and nervous.

13 December
The trading week ended with a GMI at 27.  Would like to see GMI lower than 20.  This could easily happen next week.  Take a look at this strategy : buy 30 % upside potential stocks when the Graham Mood Index or GMI is as low as possible , preferably below 25.

10 December
GMI at 38 today.  Opened a position in EQX shares.

The key to successful stock investing is to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

But how can we know when others are fearful ?  

-->   Look at the Graham Mood Index    ( Graham Sentiment Index )

The Graham Mood Index or GMI is a sentiment index represented in a numerical value ranging from 1 to 99.
The closer to 1 , the more fearful others are. The closer to 99 , the more greedy others are.

Keeping an eye on the overall stock market sentiment and mood is a small thing that could make a big difference.

9 December
GMI around 70.  Bias for US markets didn't change : lower to flat.
VIX +7 % today ... Markets are nervous ...

The goal of all this is to keep a finger on the pulse, to be aware of the underlying US stock market sentiment. 

Sold GDOT shares in the Trading portfoilio.  Took a nice profit there...

5 December
Short term expectation for the US stock market : lower to flat
GMI falls to 66.  Fear seems to be entering the US markets.

2 December
Short term expectation for the stock market : higher to flat

Sold GDOT and TLRY in the Trading from the gut portfolio. 
This portfolio is 100 % in cash now.

GMI stands at 84.  Still a lot of optimism in the markets ... but will that optimism last ?  We will see ...

29 November
Short term expectation for the stock market : flat to higher

26 November
GMI number is 86. VIX 14.25.
Short term expectation for the stock market : lower to flat.

22 November
GMI 84.  Mr. Market is certainly in a good mood. 
VIX 15.24
Fear and Gread 61
And the NAAIM Exposure Index number is 91.
NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each Wednesday to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close.


21 November
GMI is at 76 now. 
My ultra short term opinion is still : higher on average
BYND trade was closed for small profit.

20 November
My ultra short term opinion has changed to : higher on average.

19 November
The GMI , a gauge for US market sentiment, stayed flat at 52.  On the other hand we saw a jump in the Cboe Volatility Index : + 10 %
Is there something happening under the surface ?

Markets in Europe show a lot of weakness this morning.
My ultra short term opinion : lower on average

17 November
The week ended  1 % to 2 % lower for the majority of the indices.
Our confidence index GMI went lower as well this week : from 83 to 52 now.  And the VIX index went up over 12 % Friday. 
There is only 1 conclusion :  markets are clearly nervous.

15 November
I opened a short term position in SSL at 5.26 USD. 

It may not be wise to consider my gut feeling yet. But I can make a start already.  It takes time, experience, and deeper knowledge to develop a strong gut feeling.  

I 'll track my trades , my decision-making process, how I arrived at such a decision, and the emotions behind those decisions. This will help identify when my gut feeling led to successful trades and when it did not. Over time, this data can help me to make better decisions.

14 November
GMI at 68.  Stock indices : short term lower in my opinion.

12 November
Graham Mood Index stands at 76.  This is a 7 points drop in 2 days.  This drop of the GMI fear and greed meter means that fear goes up and greed goes down.

US markets are going lower.  European indices are lower already.
My current opinion for the next days : The stock market indices will go lower.  

10 November 2024

It has been about 2 months now that I posted here on my website www.stockmarketmoodtoday.com
That's a long time, I know.  The reason is that I had to find out how I can make the site more usefull for stock investors and acitve traders.  I think it is better that the things that I write are more applicable.  I will do my best to achieve this.

What will change from now on ?  Well, the Fear and Greed table won't be updated any longer.  The Sentiment Blog, on the other hand, is 'the page to be'.  Here you can read about day to day sentiment analysis as well as my thoughts about the current stock market.

From time to time I 'll share with you a company name that seems interesting for the longer term.  And I will publisch some short time trades as well...  You can find those trade on the trading from the gut page.

But the most important feature of this website is the Graham Mood Index (GMI).  It is a confidence index or a fear and greed index.  Today the GMI stands at 83.  There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for stocks.  Will that continue ... ?
It is important to realise that the GMI is calculated for US stocks only. 

Thank you for your interest !

12 September
So far in 2024 I selected 12 stocks.  VTRS is the latest selected stock.  For this return calculation I exclude VTRS because the stock is selected only 2 days ago.

WF               +8.5 %
GRFS            + 41.7 %
DDD              - 23.5 %
BE: PROX       - 5.7 %
FR:CA            +13.3 %
KEP                +10.3 %
DB                 -0.8 %
TKC               + 22.2 %
AMRK             + 60.8 %
TEVA              + 63.3 %
GGAL              + 179.3 %

My strategy : I buy 30 % upside potential stocks when the Graham Mood Index or GMI is as low as possible , preferably below 25.



10 September

I buy Viatris ( VTRS ) at 10.97 US per share. GMI at 15. And I think the stock could rise over 30 % in the next 3 years.  For me this is a buy because it fits into my strategy.
 

5 August
A price spike in VIX : VIX went higher than 60 today.  A level not seen since the corona crisis.  Mr Market is very nervous.  High uncertainty iin the markets, at least for now.  History teached us that this level is not sustainable. 

3 August
The Graham Mood Index is now ultra low : 6
This will probably be , in hindsight, a perfect moment to buy shares of your favourite stock.
I 'll buy share of Woori Financial Group - WF.

12 July
Mr Market seems to be in a very good mood lately.  GMI is at 94.
We will see what happens next week.  There will be no updates next week due to holidays.

5 July
My opinion : there is weakness building up in the overall stock markets.  In the next few days we could see market indices going down.  This only is a hypothetical scenario for the ultra short term (next few days). 

Is this a reason to sell stocks that have the potential to go up 30 % within the next 3 years ?  No. 

3 July
GMI at 52.  Mr. Market seems to be in a neutral state.  VIX  at 12.09.

2 July
The GMI, is measure for market sentiment,  is at 32 and is going lower again.  There seems to be some weakness in the overall stock markets at least for now.  Grifols - GRFS - is a stock that I think has 30 % upside potential within the next 3 years.

28 June

Just identified what I believe are 5 stocks that could go up 30 % or more in the next 1 to 3 years.

1. Deutsche Bank - Germany
2. Proximus - Belgium
3. Carrefour - France
4. 3D Systems - USA
5. Korea Electric Power - Korea

These 5 companies have the potential to produce significant returns in the coming years.  You can put them on your watch list.

27 June
Graham’s advice is as relevant today as it was in 1949.  There are three core concepts in the stock markets :

1. You’re not buying a stock, you’re buying a business.
   
   
2. You have Mr.Market who has all sorts of mood swings and you want to take advantage of Mr.Market when he’s depressed to buy and you want to take advantage of Mr.Market when he’s euphoric to sell.
   
   
3. You want a margin of safety, which is trying to buy company shares significantly below what they are worth

24 June
GMI at 34 now.  Sentiment is picking up.  A week ago GMI was at 12.
How would you know that others are fearful ?  Well , look at the Graham Mood Index.   The closer to 1 , the more fearful others are.  The closer to 99 , the more greedy others are.No need to do something about my KEP postion, at least for now

22 June
KEP shares fell nearly 6 % on Friday.  KEPCO ( Korea Electric Power Corporation ) is a turnaround candidate.  There are problems and the company has a high debt structure.  No doubt about that.  But that's exactly why you can buy shares at low multiples.
KEPCO is working to improve its financial structure.  It has a financial improvement plan.  These challenges can create fear and uncertainty among investors.  However, Graham’s advice is a reminder to stay calm and to focus on the long term.

I'm currently at a loss in my KEP position because I bought at 7.45 USD per share.  A 7 % loss more or less.  Not nice of course.
I don't want to sell my KEP shares.  But I will not just watch the shares going lower.  Next week I 'll see what I can do.  Stay tuned.  You will read my next step here.

As regards sentiment analysis, we can see that the expected volatilty is higher than 2 days ago.  So there is more uncertainty in the markets compared to 2 days ago.  Rising uncertainty often leads to lower stock prices because Mr. Market doesn't like uncertainty.

The VIX Index is used as a barometer for market uncertainty, providing market participants and observers with a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility.



20 June
Benjamin Graham said if you don't have knowledge of the chronic behavioural anomalies of Mr.Market, the imaginary manic/depressive, who personifies the emotional impetus behind the actions of the 'crowd’, you're doomed to mediocrity or worse.

The Graham Mood Index ( GMI ) is an attempt to gauge Mr. Market's current mood. 
You can find the GMI in the second column of the Fear and Greed table.  Right now the GMI is at 26.  Sentiment is on the rise since Monday when the mood index was at 12. 

The Graham Mood Index, also called Graham Sentiment Index, is represented in a numerical value ranging from 1 to 99, with 40 to 60 being neutral. Scores below 35 indicate pessimism and negative or bearish market sentiment. If the score climbs above 65, it demonstrates optimism and bullish sentiment.


18 June
APWC - Asia Pacific Wire & Cable - : a micro cap company that deserves a good look at ... 
APWC trades now at 1.69 USD

17 June
Intraday update : GMI is now at 12.   For me , the starting point is always the GMI or  Graham Mood Index  : an unique index to gauge the current market sentiment. 
A Graham Mood Index ( GMI ) below 15 could be a sign that investors are too worried.  I consider this the moment to be very attentive and alert.  It could be the perfect moment to buy some shares ... 

On 3 June I wrote :
"GMI at 28.  I prefer a lower reading , like 10 to 15 to make a stock    purchase. Nevertheless, I bought shares of KEP - Korea Electric Power - today.  KEP is a company that is on my watch list.  I paid around 7.45 USD per share and GMI is at 28. "

KEP shares trade at 7.17 USD now and GMI is at 12.


16 June
Mr.Market’s job is to provide you with prices; your job is to decide whether it is to your advantage to act on them.

14 June
CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) PUT/CALL RATIO is now at 0.24
0.24 is low and means that market players are betting on a rise of volatility in the stock market.
Together with a rising VIX and a falling GMI I think stock prices on average could be going lower next week.  This is only an opinion and we will see what happens on Monday.
I lowered my limit Buy order price for Carrefour shares in case of the start of a sell off.
Also watch BHC shares - Bausch Health

13 June

GMI stays low at 17.  But it is quite possible GMI will go even lower and investors will be offered chepaer prices by Mr Market.  There seems to be weakeness in the market at this moment. 

That is why I will lower my limit price buy orders.  For example on Carrefour (France) shares, now trading at 14.42   Lowered my bid to 13,40 euro per share.  The idea is that GMI can go lower in the short term and Mr Market could offer me a cheaper price.



10 June
GMI at 16. 

7 June
Serious drop in exposure according to NAAIM.  NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each Wednesday to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close. Responses can vary widely as indicated below. Responses are tallied and averaged to provide the average long (or short) position of all NAAIM managers, as a group.
Source : https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

3 June
GMI at 28.  I prefer a lower reading , like 10 to 15 to make a stock purchase. Nevertheless, I bought shares of KEP - Korea Electric Power - today.  KEP is a company that is on my watch list.  I paid around 7.45 USD per share and GMI is at 28.
This is no solicittion to buy shares.

Remeber the quote of Benjamin Graham :  “The intelligent investor shouldn’t ignore Mr.Market entirely. Instead, you should do business with him - but only to the extent that it serves your interests."

2 June 2024

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks significantly decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism rose.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 8.0 percentage points to 39.0%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 29th time in 30 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 7.6 percentage points to 34.2%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the fifth time in 11 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.4 percentage points to 26.7%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fourth time in seven weeks.
source : https://www.aaii.com/latest/article/212505-aaii-sentiment-survey-optimism-falls

31 May 2024
The month May started with a rapid rise in GMI value.  The GMIndex reached it 's highest level on 14 May.  Since that day the GMIndex dropped.  We will see if this drop continues in June. 

Market mood started to pick up around 16, 17, 18 April.  The peak was around half May.  During that mood cycle the German DAX index went higher about 5 %.  The iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (IWDA) was up about 6 % during that periond.

Since half May market mood has been going down.  The market mood index GMI has been going down from 84 to +/- 30 now.


29 May 2024

GMI at 20. Expected sell off continues today. Mister Market is in an bad mood currently and is adjusting stock prices accordingly.

28 May 2024
The Graham Mood Index is now 35.  VIX is on the rise.  The market sentiment is going lower.  The probability for lower stock prices on average in the coming days is going up in my opinion.  Don't be surprised ...

21 May
GMI at 84.  Stays high and above average.  Probably not sustainable.  My opininion : GMI will go lower in the short term.  If GMI drops , it means that market sentiment weakens and market prices go lower on average.

17 May
Market mood measured by GMI is still high.  83 is a high reading.
In my opinion we could see a lower GMI next week.  As always GMI can not be used to forecast the stock markets.  It can only be used to keep a finger on the pulse.

10 May
The Graham Mood Index climbed above 80.  This means that investors are getting greedy...  A possible sign that stock market prices will stay flat on average or even start to go lower.

3 May
GMI moved up fast this week.  Mister Market is in a good mood currently.  We 'll see what happens next week. 

26 April
The VIX put / call ratio is at 1.37.  Market players are speculating that the VIX, a measure for volatilty, will drop. 

19 April
The GMI or Graham Mood Index is at 4.  This is the lowest reading in months.  A historically low position of less than 5.  When Mr. Market gets too pessimistic , valuations on stocks could be favorable, allowing investors to purchase them at a reasonable price relative to their future potential.
A company that is worth to take a closer look at is Deutsche Bank.
I have a position in Deutsche Bank shares.
This is no solicitation to buy shares.  

16 April
Stocks on average went lower indeed.  Market sentiment analysis can sometimes be helpfull.  Just to keep a finger on the pulse...  Not to make predictions or forecasts.

10 April
GMI at 16 now.  Mister Market is definitely not in a good mood.  Overall stock prices are under pressure.   But ... this can be a perfect moment to buy your favourite stock.  A stock that looks interesting now is Turkcell İletişim Hizmetleri A.S.  The stock ticker is TKC.

5 April
NAAIM exposure index drops to 84.

3 April 2024
GMI is at exactly 50 now.  This is a neutral reading.  My personal expectation is that overall stock prices will go lower in the coming weeks.

29 March
The ViX put - call ratio is a 0.27.  This is at the lower end of the range.  A low VIX P/C means threre is high demand for bearish protection. Silence before a (small) storm ?
https://www.stockmarketmoodtoday.com/blog

28 March
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks significantly increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both pessimism and neutral sentiment decreased.
source : https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

22 March
GMI is 72 today.  That is above average.  It is known that in that in times of uncertainty gold and gold stocks have a tendency to go up in price.  A-Mark Precious Metals - AMRK - is a company in the precious metals sector. 

7 March
TEVA deserves our attention as a buy candidate for the longer term.

GMI at 76.  Mr Market continues to be in a good mood.


2 March
From time to time,  I'll write about ideas for short term trading as weill as longer term ideas that deserve our attention.  Of course it is important to stay focused on the overall market sentiment as well.
The GMI and other market sentiment indicators will be used to keep a finger on the pulse.

Current interesting stocks for the longer term are :
TEVA
AMRK
DB
SUPV

As regards our VTRS short term trade example , the VTRS short term trade is closed for a 10.83 % profit.

23 February
NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close on a specific day of the week, currently Wednesdays.  Responses are tallied and averaged to provide the average long (or short) position of all NAAIM managers, as a group.
The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped from 96 to 75.

20 February
GMI is stable and not at an extreme.  Probably higher next few days

14 February
My personal bias is higher on average.


13 February
VIX is on the rise ...  VIX it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility -- widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.  Because of its tendency to move significantly higher during periods of market fear and uncertainty, another name for the VIX is the "fear index."  On the other hand  :  a decline in VIX normally accompanies a broad stock market rise.

12 February
The Graham Mood Index ended the business day at 83.  It could be "smart" to take some profits of the table as they say.  No advice of course.
My personal bias for short term stock movement (on average) is lower.  I think we will see lower stock prices on average in the coming days. 

8 February
GMI above 50 again.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, was unchanged at 49.0%. Bullish sentiment is at an unusually high level and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 14th consecutive week.
Source : https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

6 February
Market Mood a bit higher compared to yesterday.  But at 42 this is just a neutral reading.  Overall stock market has a tendency to go higher, at least for now.

2 February
Looking back at January 2024 we see large swings in the Graham Mood Index (GMI). 
The GMI was at 12 on the 17 th and at 86 on 29 January. 
A reading below 15 points to a pessimistic mood of Mister Market.
A reading above 85 points to a optimistic mood of Mister Market.
A reading between 40 and 60 is to be considerded as neutral.

31 January

Graham said that "you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
"Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but."

Graham continues : "For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems.  When in a very good mood, he names a high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains."

"At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him."

The Graham Mood Index is an attempt to gauge Mr. Market's current overall mood.  Yesteday the index was at 82 , today the index is at 44.  This is a serious drop...  How will this affect Mr. Market's quotations ?  We will know tomorrow.

29 January
GMI at 86.  This is rather high.  At times Mr. Market feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors ....

26 January

The Graham Mood Index (GMI) is at its highest level this month. GMI is at 66.  This reading is not extremely high.  Remember December last year : the GMI didn't drop below 88.
When Mr. Market gets too pessimistic,  valuations on good stocks could be favorable, allowing investors to purchase them at a reasonable price relative to their future potential. When Mr. Market is overly optimistic, this may provide a good time to sell the stock at a valuation that is unjustified.

25 January
VIX is going higher.  Volatility is how much and how quickly prices move over a given span of time. In the stock market, increased volatility is often a sign of fear and uncertainty among investors. This is why the VIX volatility index is sometimes called the "fear index."
My personal opinion is that the probability of the overall stock market going higher in the short term becomes lower.  We 'll see what happens.

23 January
VIX at 12.5. 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment and in particular the degree of fear among market participants.
The index is more commonly known by its ticker symbol and is often referred to simply as “the VIX.” It was created by and is maintained by CBOE Global Markets. It is an important index in the world of trading and investment because it provides a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments.
source : https://www.investopedia.com

17 January
GMI at 12.  Mr. Market is in a not so good mood currently ....  But we know that Mr. Market has mood swings. 
The Graham Mood index ( GMI ) is designed to get a sense of Mister Market's current mood. Used as an allegory, Mr. Market is an imaginary investor devised by Benjamin Graham. Mr. Market is a hypothetical investor who is driven by panic, euphoria, and apathy on any given day, and approaches his investing as a reaction to his mood.
Modern interpretations would describe Mr. Market randomly swinging from bouts of optimism to moods of pessimism.
Teva Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - is a stock with upside potential.  Worth to take a good look at this company  ......
An other company that I think is cheap now is Grupo Financiero Galicia - GGAL.  It could be a nice moment to buy shares now that the GMI is only at 12.

10 January

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks was flat in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism slightly increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, was unchanged at 48.6%. Optimism is still at an unusually high level. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 11th time in 14 weeks.
source : https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

5 January
GMI at 38

3 January
The Graham Mood Index or Graham Sentiment Index (GMI) is now at 50.  Yesterday 92.  This is a large drop for the mood index.  Will stocks go lower on average the coming weeks ?

20 December
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks rose to its highest level in nearly five months in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism fell to its lowest level in almost six years.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased to 51 %. Optimism is now unusually high.  Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the sixth consecutive week and the seventh time in 10 weeks.

7 December
iShaman market mood index at 33.
The Bursa Malaysia market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their stocks in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With iSaham Market Mood Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreations. There are two simple assumptions:

1. Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
2. When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.

source : https://www.isaham.my/market-mood#market-mood-trend


6 December
Market Mood Index goes higher (more greed) while iSaham index goes lower (more fear).  This is odd.  Other indexes rather point to greed.

2 December
Mister Market's sentiment ,gauged with the market mood model , knows no boundaries.  With the GMI at 95 , Mister Market is in an extremely good mood. 

1 December
Did you notice that the Graham Mood Index (GMI) is going lower ? 
The Graham Mood Index (GMI) is a fear and greed gauge I created myself.  The Graham Mood Index (GMI) is also called The Graham Sentiment Index.
Also interesting is the current VIX put call ratio of 0.30 ! 
Such a low reading could mean that there is speculation on higher volatility in the near future.  Higher volatility due to higher uncertainty.

29 November
AAII : 48 / 32 / 20
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks continued to rise in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Pessimism decreased to ... 20%. 

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months,  increasd to 48 %. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, is at 32 %. Neutral sentiment is around its historical average of 31.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased to 20%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0%.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased to 28%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.4%.

28 November
Short term upside momentum doesn't last forever...

27 November
Stock market prices stagnate on average , while the GMI is still high at 93.  The Market Mood Index is falling on the other hand. 


24 November
VIX at lowest level since 1 January.  The VIX is commonly used to measure investor confidence in the market. 

22 November
The VIX index, an indicator of expected market volatility, is at 12.8 and VIX PCR (put/call ratio) at 0.35 now.
For every VIX put option traded ther were 2.85 VIX call option traded.  Speculators seem to expect higher volatility in the short term.

21 November
AAII sentiment research : 45 % bullish ; 24 % bearish.
The sentiment survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term; individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.


20 November
Record high for the Graham Mood Index.  Now at 93.  This is an extreme number.  Will Mister Market stay is such a good mood ?  Are lower stock prices just around the corner ?

17 November
VIX at 13.4 now.  This is the lowest number since September 2023.
We 'll see what happens next week.

16 November
VIX P/C is dropping a lot over the past 5 days.  The market seems to expect higher volatilityn in the near term. 

14 Novrmber
AAII at 44 % .  This is the most bullish reading since 1 September 2023.

13 November
Mr. Market is enthousiastic , at least for now.

10 November
Big jump in all sentiment and mood readings.  The Equity Put Call ratio (eq. P/C) is above 1.

9 November
iSaham index is steadily going up.

8 November
NAAIM from 29 a week ago to 62 now.  Professional are buying stocks again.


6 November
GMI drops a bit but still above average.

3 November
VIX dropped a lot this past week.  The equity put/ call ratio is at 0.54 : this is the lowest reading in 2 months.
GMI is at 92 : Mr. Market seems to be in a very good mood currently.

2 November
Rapid rise in the Graham Mood Index (GMI) : from 7 a few days ago to 32 now.   

30 October
VIX put / call ratio now at 0.28.  This is extremely bearish.  Is it the start of a short term rally ?  As often happens when the market gets too bullish or too bearish, conditions become ripe for a reversal....


26 October
Market Mood Index at lowest point in more than 8 weeks.
VIX higher again.  Stock market participants are nervous ....

13 October
Market Mood Model says Mister Market is in a 'not so good mood' now.  What will the impact be on stock price in the near term ?

12 October

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks rose to its highest level in five weeks in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism fell but remains above average.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 9.9 percentage points to 40.0%. Optimism was last higher on September 7, 2023 (42.2%). Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the second time in six weeks.
source : https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

5 October
VIX goes lower.

3 October
The stock markets are going lower again.  VIX is near 20 and Fear and Greed index is in extreme fear teritory.
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index fell to an “Extreme Fear” reading of 16, its lowest level since last October.  Is it the start of a short term rally in stock prices ?


2 October
Stock markets have a dificult time.  Sentiment and mood indicators are pointing to 'fear'. 
It is interesting to mention the big drop in NAAIM reading.  NAAIM member firms who are active money managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents their overall equity exposure at the market close on a specific day of the week, currently Wednesdays.

1 september
Start of a new month : a new month = new opportunities.
Follow up on 9 mood or sentiment indicators :

• Fear and Greed Index
• AAII Sentiment Survey
• Market Mood Index
• iSaham Market Mood Index
• NAAIM Exposure Index
• VIX Index
• Index Put / Call ratio
• Investor Movement Index
• Market Mood Model

4 September
Fear and Greed reading is neutral.
Market Mood Model is in a 'not so good mood '.

8 September
Market Mood Model is in a 'good mood ' now.  Significant drop in VIX.


15 September
Large drop in SPY index today.  VIX doesn't move a lot.  But Market Mood Model switched to a 'not so good' reading.

18 September
Look at the Put - call ratiio above 1 today.  When the ratio of puts to calls is rising, it is usually a sign investors are growing more nervous. A ratio above 1 is considered bearish.

21 September
Large drop in MMI index.  Sentiment in the stock markets is going down. 

28 September
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is now in the extreme fear zone. 
And the Market Mood Model changes from 'not so good mood' to 'good mood'.

29 August

The Market Mood Model is an attempt to measure Mr Market's current mood.  The primary aim of market mood analysis is to get in sync with the market. To gain a sense for the bias of the market. For short term traders mood analysis can help to assess the current conditions and confirm suitability for opening a new position.  For stock investors mood analysis is not so important although ii's wise to keep a finger on the pulse.

25 August
Mr. Market in a good mood according to the market mood model.  Model answers can definitely be helpful when coupled with personal bias. 

21 August
Mr Market in good mood now.

19 August
Mr Market was not in a good mood this week and he adjusted stock market prices accordingly.  In general stock prices went lower.
The MM model can not be used for prediction .  It only serves as a stock market baromoter.

16 August
Stocks continue to drift lower.

11 August
The Market Mood Model turned into in a not so good mood.  Mr Market was just a short period in a good mood.  Will it result in overall lower stock prices ?  We don't know , but it could happen.
Follow mood changes here.

9 August
There is a change in market mood : Mr. Market is in a good mood now.  MMM helps to keep a finger on the pulse. 


8 August
European stock indexes lower so far. 

4 August
Last day of the business week.  Today (Friday) is the 4 th day Mr Market is a in not so good mood.  Indexes fell about 2 % to 3 % so far.  This is to be considered as moderate .
We 'll see what happens next week.  Have a nice weekend.
Stay tuned .

3 th of August
Still in a not so good mood

2 nd of August
Japan's Nikkei 225 lost over 2 % and European indexes are lower also.

1 st of August
There is a change in mood according to the Market Mood Model (MMM).
Mr Market is in a not so good mood now.  This means that the probability of the overall stock market going up in the short term becomes lower. 
Why did Mr Market's Mood changes ?  Is it because he thinks the overall stock market valuation is too high compared with the overall GDP ?  Is it because the interest rates are raised.  We don't know.  And we don't have to know.  Successful investors and traders understand that the 'why' comes later ...

In July there will be no weekly updates.  The good or not so good mood page will be updated in case the Market Mood Model sees a change in stock market mood.

During the holidays I decided to focus 100 % on market mood in my blog.  This means that there will be several updates during the trading week.  The value for you will be higher.  Later on you will have the possibility to receive by email some short term trades and stocks that I buy longer term. 

Updates on the blog will look like this :

28 July 2023
According to the mood model the stock market ended in a good mood this week.  The reason could be that the US economy showed larger than expected growth last quarter despite higher funds rate.  
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/gdp2q23_adv.pdf

Restarted my short term trading journey.  Did 3 trades past 4 weeks.
2 positive, 1 negative.  Small wins and small loss.  Want bigger wins ... who doesn't ...


***
Update from Saturday 17 st of June
PAGS trade was closed for a small profit.  Had the chance to close for a 5 % profit but wanted more and ... ended with less.

TEVA trade : nice 3.7 % winner

LND shares are long term : now currently at purchase price again after dip.

Mr Market ended the week in a not so good mood according to the market mood model. 

***
Update from Sunday 25 st of June
Mr Market was in a not so good mood this week.ended.  The week ended as well in a not so good mood according to the market mood model. 
I did 2 short term trades.  2 times I bought and had to sell for a small loss.  LND shares - longer term holding - went higher.

In July there will be no weekly updates.  The good or not so good mood page will be updated in case the Market Mood Model sees a change in stock market mood.

***
Update from Saturday 6 st of May
I didn't make a short term trade this week because
my day job took a lot of time and effort this week.
Mr Market ended the week in a good mood.


***
Update from Saturday 13 st of May
One trade this week and it was a losing trade.
A gap down in TEVA shares resulted in a 7.72 % loss.
Not nice , but this can happen.
When I review the past 4 and a half month short term trading , I can say that I'm pretty happy with these first steps.  Overall I was profitable.  Although I must work to become better. 
That is the reason I take a break short term trading.  I will use the time to work on myself and my trading habits.  Yes , short term trading is hard work but I believe there is progress to be made.

***
Update from Saturday 1 st of April
In the second half of the past week the Market Mood Model turned from a 'not so good mood' to a 'good mood'.

SSRM trade was open from last week.  Closed for a 5.12 % profit.
I opened and closed 3 other trades last week :
UIS : 0,55 % profit
ELAN : 0,77 % profit
VTRS : 0.94 % loss

I managed to sell UIS at the worst possible price. 

P.S. I have 7 principles in order to survive the short term trading arena.  The principles are not about stock trading itself.  The principles are about the attitude one needs in order to survive.  Without a correct attitude short term trading will be hard.  A correct attitude is needed to make progress.


***
Update from Saturday 9 th of April
A trade in ELAN : a small loss - under 1 %

A trade in SSRM : position stll open.

***
Update from Saturday 16 th of April
SSRM position was sold for a 2.07 % profit.
Mr. Market ended the week in a good mood.

***
Update from Sunday 23 th of April
ELAN was a flat trade.  Unfortunately for me because the stock is now more than 7 % higher since I sold ...

***
Update from Sunday 29 th of April
I did only 1 trade.  It was a losing trade : - 2.3 %.
The loss should have been smaller in hindsight.
Mr Market ends the week in a good mood according to the Market Mood Model.

***
Update from Saturday 4 th of March
Mr Market ended the week in a good mood.
No trades this week.

***
Update from Saturday 11 th of March
Mr Market started the week in a good mood.
Mr Market ended the week in a not so good mood.
High volatility this past week.
No trades this week.

***
Update from Saturday 18 th of March
Mr Market ended the week in a not so good mood.
High volatility this past week.
This week I took a - large- trade in SSRM.
The position is currently in positive territory.  We will see what happens.
Still own LND shares.  They headed lower this week.

***
Update from Saturday 25 th of March
Mr Market was in a good mood this week , but ended in a not so good mood this past week. 
The market mood model helped me to keep a finger on the pulse.

4 trades closed and 1 position is still open :

* SSRM trade from last week was closed for a +3.52 % profit
* CMCL trade was also good : + 5.10 %.  Happy with that ...
* 2 consecutive trades in VTRS failed. Each time the loss was small.

* 1 position is still open : it' a new trade in SSRM shares.

Good trading next week.
See you next week for another update of these short term trades.
The update will be available under the April tab.
***

Update from Saturday 4 February
Market Mood Model ended the week in a not so good mood.
My TEVA trade ended in a small loss.  In hindsight this shouldn't have happened.
AMCX was a winning trade.  Now closed.
LND : I didn't sell although I should have sold.  But I consider LND as a longer term play.  And not as a short term trade. 


Update from Saturday 11 February
TEVA trade : small winner.
I still own LND shares.  Dropped a lot this week.  This happens when one mixes up short term trading with investing...
Market Mood Model ended the week in a not so good mood.

Update from Saturday 18 February
The Market Mood Model was in a not so good mood during the whole week.  I didn't make any trades.


Update from Saturday 25 February
DKNG trade : small winner

Next update next weekend.
Select March to see my March trades.

New in 2023 :  the start of my short term trading experience. 
I will take the current mood of Mr Market into consideration each time I make a decision. 
All trades are buy trades in US stocks.  The goal is to buy shares and sell them at a higher price after a short holding period. 

Updates of the past trading week by the end of every weekend. 
I use a telegrahic style of writing.

***  
Update from Saturday 7 January
Mister Market is still in a good mood.  Mister Market is in a good mood since 28 December 2022.

The outcome of the © Market Mood Model - 'good mood' versus 'not so good mood' - is nothing more than a hint.

But, although it is only a hint , I use the outcome in my decision making process and risk management.
Follow up on his mood swings here.


No new position in the past week.
Some trades that are performing very good : AAN, LND, SUPV and EDN.

Good luck next week.  Read the update next weekend. 


***  
Update from Saturday 14 January
In the past week I sold my EDN shares at 10.31 USD.  I had bought the shares end December 2022.  Very profitable trade.  Above average.  Ok , that is great but this is not always the case.

Mister Market is still in a good mood.  Follow up on his mood swings here.

***  
Update from Sunday 22 January
Had a small loss in TEVA trade.
Has a small loss in VIPS trade.
Sold SUPV shares.  Was a winning trade.
Sold AAN shares.  Was also a winning trade.

At the end of the week , Mr Market seems to be in a good mood according to the model.
Let 's see what happens next week. 
There will be an update available the coming weekend. 
Good luck wtih your (short term) trading.

***  
Update from Saturday 28 January
I made a short term trade in DINO.  This trade was a losing trade, but the loss was small. The loss was only 18 cent per share.

The next trade I made was in AMCX.  Not sold yet.

The last trade was a trade in TEVA.  A second attempt in TEVA this month.  Will it be a winner ?  We 'll see.

LND shares are still in my portofio.

Mr Market ended the week in a good mood.

The trades I made will be on this blog next weekend.
Select February to see my February trades.